Thursday, February 12, 2009

The Calmness Agreement Report - Continued - Calmness Agreement: The Sequence of Events

The Calmness Agreement agreed upon between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Egypt, covers the Gaza Strip only and does not include the West Bank. Indeed, after 4 days after of the commencement of the Agreement, Israel arrested militants of the Islamic Jihad movement in the Rafidya area ( Nablus in the West Bank) on 23/6/2008, which led to a reaction by Islamic Jihad in Gaza. In response they launched 3 rockets to Sederot in Southern Israel the next day.

This act by Islamic Jihad led to a complete closure of the border crossings by Israel until 30/6/2008, during which Israel permitted only the entry of small quantities of fuel, particularly which was needed to for the only power station in Gaza.

On 25/6/2008, the Interior Minister in the Hamas government, Sa’eid Siam, called for a meeting with the leaders of Palestinian factions in Gaza, excluding Fatah, but including the Islamic Jihad. At the meeting it was agreed that all of the Palestinian factions in Gaza were to stop launching rockets towards the towns in southern Israel.

After almost 5 months of Calmness, all Palestinian factions in Gaza, who agreed to stop launching all types of rockets toward southern Israel, formed a committee to be engaged in monitoring the number of Israeli violations to the Calmness Agreement. On November 4th 2008, Israel launched an attack on the middle Gaza Strip area, in pretext demolishing a tunnel that had been dug to capture Israeli soldiers. Israel closed all Gaza border crossings on 5/11/2008 as a respond to the missiles launched on Israeli south towns as a result of the Israeli attack on the same day. The attack of 4/11/2008 was followed by an air strike against Hamas/Qassam fighters, which caused 6 victims, followed by 4 victims on 12/11/2008, and 3 victims from other factions -Popular resistance committees- on 15/11/2008 and was followed by another 4 victims of the same faction on 16/11/2008.

After each attack carried out by the Israeli side, Hamas and other factions retaliated by launching rockets, including 4-6 GRAD missiles on Ashkelon. Israel announced on 19/1/2008 (Voice of Israel) that the number of rockets launched from Gaza towards Israel reached 170, in interval rocket barrages. Most of the Palestinian factions participated in launching rockets.

On 21/11/2008 the Prime Minister of the deposed government, Isma’el Haneyya, stated after meeting with the Palestinian factions, that all Palestinian factions agreed to maintain the Calmness Agreement with Israel, as long as Israel will respect the agreement.

Since 4/11/2008 it had become normal to launch at least one or two rockets every day from Gaza to the southern Israel, as a respond to the Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip.
On the night of 28-29/11/2008 8 Israeli soldiers were injured due to a rocket which hit their military camp at Nahal Oz. This missile was a response to an Israeli attack on 28/11/2008 in East Khan Younis, killing one and injuring 2 of the Popular Resistance committees. These committees later published a statement taking responsibility for the rocket barrage on the Israeli camp.

Matan Velna’ee (Israeli vice Minister of Defense) stated on 29/11/2008, that Israel will never accept to have armed persons within the buffered zone which Israel had determined (a 300m wide strip along the Israeli borders). Also he stated to Voice of Israel – Reshet Bit that a big operation on Gaza against Hamas and other armed activists became essential for Israel to stop the rockets, although such an operation would cost the Israeli army victims.

In the meantime, due to the Israeli closing of border crossings, since 5/11/2008 no more foodstuffs and fuel derivatives were transported to Gaza's 1.5 million citizens, except for some small amounts of food donations. UNRWA stated on 15/11/2008 that it stopped the distribution of food for about 750000 refugees in Gaza, as a result of closures and a lack of fuel.

Such actions and reactions rendered the Calmness Agreement meaningless and could lead to a brake down. Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri declared on 26/6/2008 that if the closures on the Gaza Strip continue, it will indeed render the deal of Calmness meaningless.

Israel continued controlling the opening and closing of the commercial border crossings the same as it did in the past, despite the Calmness Agreement. They closed crossings for 2-3 days each time Palestinians launched a rocket or missile from Gaza towards Israeli towns in the south. This was continued by Israel through June and July 2008, but in August and September 2008, Hamas security forces well controlled Gaza borders with Israel, and almost no rockets were launched at the Israeli southern towns.

On 14/9/2008 Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak ordered to close all Gaza border crossings (except Erez crossing which was kept open for humanitarian cases and foreigners only) as a result of a rocket fired at Sederot, the day before (no casualties). On 17/9/2008 Israel opened only Keerem Shaloom crossing, where Sofa (the main crossing) was opened on 18/9/2008, although only partly. The total number of trucks transporting goods to Gaza remained almost the same (70-80/day), whether they came through Sofa or Kerem shalom, or divided between both.
The Israeli authorities reported the launch of a rocket from Gaza towards Kissofeem border crossing on Thursday evening (9/10/2008). Israelis claims that the rocket hit the center of the crossing but caused no casualties.

On 11/9/2008 a new Palestinian fighting faction (called Saraya Al-Tawheed) declared in a press statement, the responsibility for blowing up an Israeli vehicle east to Khan Younis. There was no response from the Israeli side, and it remains the question whether this event was to be considered as a Palestinian violation of the Calmness Agreement, because that mainly dealt with rockets and missiles.

According to Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot (as translated by Al-Quds newspaper on 23/9/2008) Brigadier General Yossi Bidts, Head of the Research Division of Intelligence, in the Israeli cabinet meeting on Sunday 21/9/2008, warned that Hamas may exploit the Calmness in order to enlarge its forces.

He stated that there is a relative Calmness, since Hamas and other factions had launched only 15 Qassam rockets and 13 shells since 19/6/2008, but he predicted the depletion of the Calmness. He also added that the Palestinian organizations will continue their attempts to smuggle their activists through the tunnels with Egypt (Sinai), in order to sneak to Israel and carry out attacks there. Also, in the meantime these organizations are still trying to implement attacks and operations in the West Bank against Israelis.

Breg.General. Bidets said that Hamas and the other Palestinian organizations (factions) are using the Calmness Agreement to increase their strength in preparation for the next round. There was a qualitative increase in the number of daily exercises to prepare for facing the Israeli soldiers in residential areas, in addition to the increase of their stocks of rockets, which were better developed where it concerned range and accuracy.

It is noted also that Deputy Prime Minister Haim Ramon had explained in his statement, released on 22/9/2008 that he puts all the blame on Defense Minister Ihud Barak being responsible for the approval of the Calmness Agreement with Hamas, which he opposed.

Tzipi Livni (head of the Kadima party) and Eli Ishay (Head of the Shass party) both declared that Israel was not in favor to extend the Calmness Agreement with Hamas (Voice of Israel 14/12/2008).

Amos Gila’ad an military Israeli official left to Cairo on 14/12/2008 (Voice of Israel) to hand a message to Hamas, through Egyptian minister of intelligence Omer Suliman, which stated the Israeli willingness to extend the Calmness between Hamas and Israel, taking into consideration that Israel is considering the attacks of other small factions no threat to the agreement, while Israel will respond to each attack locally and limitedly, confined to the area from where the attack was executed.

Amos Gila'ad, when he returned from his one day visit to Cairo on 14/12/2008, stated on the early morning of 15/12/2008 to Voice of Israel, that Israel sees no beginning nor final dates for the Calmness. It is considering the Calmness valid as long as there are no rockets fired, or other attacks on Israel. In the mean time, however, Israel is ready to retaliate on any hostile attack.

Prime Minister Isma’el Haneyya of the deposed Hamas government announced no position of Hamas for the extension of the Calmness at the ceremony which took place in Gaza on 14/12/2008, celebrating the 21s, anniversary of the founding of the Hamas movement. Haneyya said, however, that all other Palestinian factions are not in favor to extend the Calmness agreement with Israel after 19/12/2008. After a meeting with former US President Jimmy Carter in Damascus around the same time (14/12/2008), he stated that Hamas would not extend the Calmness Agreement with Israel.

A source in the Hamas movement said to the Arabic newspaper Al-Hayat on Sunday 14/12/2008 that Hamas prefers constructive ambiguity. The Guardian learned that the major Palestinian factions held a crucial meeting on Thursday night to discuss the issue of calmness, and the intention was the refusal to respond to the Israeli demands to extend the Calmness.
Palestinian sources stressed that the Calmness would not be extended without improving the present conditions, and to continue in accordance with the current conditions is impossible.

Israeli Minister of Defense Barak said that Israel was not deterred from carrying out a military operation in the Gaza Strip, although he was not eager to carry out such an attack (Haaretz newspaper 16/11/2008).

The Hamas leadership held a meeting on Thursday night (16/12/2008) and unanimously agreed to refuse to extend the Calmness. It is also reported by the London-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper, quoting high-level Palestinian Gaza Strip security sources, that armed Palestinian factions formed a joint operations room in anticipation of Israeli forces to launch large-scale military operation in the Gaza Strip with the approach of the end of Calmness on 19/12/2008.

On 17/12/2008 about 16 rockets been launched from Gaza, according to Voice of Israel. One of them hit the center of the town Sderot, causing two light injuries and crushing many cars. Most of the rockets had been launched by Islamic Jihad in revenge of the death of its activist in Jenin, who was killed by special Israeli forces. PM Olmert threatened that this situation was unbearable, and promised to react.

In the Ha'aretz of 17/12/2008, correspondent Yanir Yagna wrote: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stopped short of pledging retaliation for a surge of Qassam rockets (20) that pelted the western Negev on Wednesday, saying "there can't be a situation where there is a truce, but the situation on the ground is very different." "This demands a response, and there will be a response," he added.

Olmert spoke just days before the six-month cease fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the rulers of the Gaza Strip, was set to expire.

In response to the rockets Israel launched 2 air strikes on Northern Gaza (demolishing a house, killing 1 and injuring 2), and on Khan Younis, where Israeli helicopters demolished a workshop.

On the other side, Hamas leader in Gaza Mahmoud Zahar said on Tuesday 16/12/2008, that the six-month Gaza truce with Israel would not be renewed unless Israel lets more food, fuel, and other goods into the Gaza strip.

"Until Friday 19/12/2008, we're still committed, but after that, no one can tell," Zahar said in an interview with Bloomberg News at his Gaza home, referring to the truce's December 19 expiration (Ha'aretz 17/12/2008).

Hamas official Ismail Redwan said in statements to a pro Hamas website in Gaza Strip: "Next Friday (19/12/2008) will be the last day for a calm deal achieved with Israel six months ago by Egyptian mediation,” pointing out that the calmness will not be renewed under any circumstances. He added that they have gone through a tough experience with the Israeli occupation over the past six months, yet the enemy did not commit to any of the Calmness's obligations. Moreover, the truce was not transferred to the West Bank as it was supposed.

He denied any communications on part of Hamas officials for renewing the Calmness or negotiating on it. Redwan confirmed that his movement will respond to all the Israeli attacks in a way which serves the interests of the Palestinian people.

On 18/12/2008 (one day before the expiration of the Calmness agreement) Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for launching 12 rockets on Southern Israel, followed by 2 Israeli air strikes on Gaza City and Khan Younis, causing 8 injuries.

According to Ha’aretz Staff and News Agencies of 19/12/2008, 3 Qassams hit the Negev, as Israeli officials threaten with a Gaza offensive. Gaza militants fired three Qassam rockets into Israel on Friday, shortly after senior Israeli officials warned that a military offensive in the coastal territory would be "unavoidable” if the rocket fire continues. The rockets struck the western Negev on Friday morning, causing neither casualties nor damage. The government officials' warning, came after Hamas announced Thursday evening (18/12/2008) that the cease-fire with Israel in Gaza was officially over.

Ha’aretz added that Jerusalem ordered the Israel Defense Forces to refrain from offensive operations for now, saying it wants to see how the situation develops.

"We will not be the ones to violate the cease-fire," a senior defense official said Thursday night. "If Hamas wants to escalate, we will know how to act - and it will be clear to the international community who is behind the renewed fighting."

However, a senior government official warned, "if Hamas doesn't come to its senses and calm the situation, there will be no choice other than an Israeli military response."

Egypt, meanwhile, said on Friday it had received no requests that it try to patch up the Gaza truce, which it mediated earlier this year. Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hussam Zaki said: "We have not so far been asked to exert [truce] efforts as we did in the past."

In the meantime and for the first time there were many appeals from USA Secretary of States Condoleezza Rice, UN secretary General Ban Ki Moon and from the Russian government asking Hamas to agree on the Calmness extension.

The days just after the expiration of the Calmness Agreement (i.e. after 19/12/2006) saw the same actions and reactions; rockets fired from Gaza on Israel with no major casualties, and Israeli air strikes on Gaza targeting bases and activists launching such rockets.

According to Voice of Israel on 21/12/2008, both the head of the Likud party (Netanyahu), and Kadima party (Tzipi Livni), used the conflict with Hamas in their elections propaganda, promising to end the Hamas regime in Gaza when any of them would become the PM of Israel after the coming elections.