12 000 milliards de dollars pour la guerre au Proche-Orient

Douze mille milliards de dollars, c’est la somme exorbitante perdue suite aux guerres qui ensanglantent l’ensemble du Proche-Orient depuis 1991. Ce constat chiffré est issu d’une étude inédite qui a été présentée au Palais des Nations, à Genève.

Mené par le Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) - groupe de réflexion basé en Inde- et soutenu par la Suisse, la Norvège, le Qatar et la Turquie, le rapport de 170 pages est basé sur 97 paramètres. Ces derniers vont des pertes humaines aux conséquences sur l’eau, le climat, l’agriculture, en passant par les libertés d’expression, de religions ou de la presse, l’éducation, la croissance démographique, le chômage, l’émigration, la hausse des loyers ou du prix du pétrole. Plus de cinquante experts d’Israël, des territoires palestiniens, d’Irak, du Liban, de Jordanie, d’Egypte, du Qatar, du Koweït et de la Ligue arabe ont participé à la recherche.

Une cascade de coûts

Le chercheur indien Sundeep Waslekar, président du SFG, précise:

"On doit parler d’une cascade de coûts dont une partie n’est pas quantifiable financièrement comme les atteintes à la dignité humaine."

Le rapport pointe par exemple les centaines de milliers d’heures de travail perdues par les Palestiniens aux check-points (barrages israéliens). Il révèle aussi que 91% des Israéliens vivent dans un perpétuel sentiment de peur et d’insécurité. Sundeep Waslekar s'interroge:

"Comment construire une société à long terme dans de pareilles conditions?"

Le chercheur précise que l’étude ne vise pas à trouver des solutions pour la paix dans la région:

"C’est la tâche des décideurs politiques. Nos recherches partent de 1991, date de la Conférence de Madrid [entre Israéliens et Palestiniens] où le destin du Proche-Orient aurait pu s’inverser. Cela n’a pas été le cas, mais nous avons trouvé judicieux d’estimer les gains qu’auraient engendré alors un processus de paix.

Il est important de savoir, par exemple, que 40% de la population en Jordanie est composée de réfugiés. Que se passerait-il si la Suisse devait accueillir deux millions de réfugiés? Sans conflit, la croissance au Proche-Orient serait de 8% par an."

L'Irak le plus touché Proportionnellement à sa situation économique, l’Irak est le pays le plus touché, avec 2262 milliards de dollars de pertes. Ce montant représenterait son PIB -plus de trente fois supérieur à celui d’aujourd’hui- si le pays avait été à l’abri des guerres et des sanctions depuis 1991. Si l’on inclut les guerres contre l’Iran et le Koweït depuis 1980, son PIB serait cinquante fois supérieur.

Même après avoir payé des compensations aux réfugiés palestiniens et aux colons israéliens pour qu’ils déménagent, le revenu moyen annuel d’une famille israélienne pourrait croître de 4429 dollars, celui d’une famille égyptienne de 500 dollars, de 1250 dollars en Jordanie et de 5000 dollars en Arabie saoudite, selon l’étude. Sans parler du coût des infrastructures: transports entre les villes, acheminement du gaz entre Israël et le Liban, approvisionnement en eau, etc.

Un appel à la raison

"Ce rapport appelle à la raison dans une région dominée par les passions et les émotions, explique Jean-Daniel Ruch, représentant spécial pour le Proche-Orient du Département helvétique des affaires étrangères (DFAE), qui ajoute:

"Bien sûr, pour une mère de famille qui a perdu son mari et ses enfants dans les hostilités de Gaza, ces chiffres n’apportent aucun réconfort, là où il y a besoin de vérité et de justice. Mais ce genre d’étude pourrait enclencher la volonté politique nécessaire à un véritable processus de paix."

Raja Khalidi, économiste à la Conférence des Nations-Unies sur le commerce et le développement (CNUCED), reste dubitatif face aux ambitions du projet. Pour lui, l’ouvrage pourrait servir aux académiciens mais cela n’aura aucun impact sur les décideurs politiques pour arrêter la guerre:

"Le but d’une telle étude est certes noble, mais l’évaluation des coûts, aussi éloquents soient-ils, n’amènera pas la paix. Tous les calculs du monde n’arrêteront pas la guerre. Les racines du conflit sont autrement profondes. La justice et les droits sont en cause. Ces aspects doivent être abordés et résolus pour pouvoir envisager la fin des hostilités.

De plus, si cette logique qui consiste à évaluer les coûts pour décider de continuer ou non une guerre avait réellement un impact, on n’aurait certainement pas effectué les dépenses de ces dix dernières années."

Les profiteurs de guerre

Autre remarque de l’économiste:

"Il ne faut pas oublier que les guerres sont nourries par les besoins des industries militaires qui se trouvent surtout en Europe et aux Etats-Unis. On sait que les conflits en Irak, Afghanistan et Gaza ont été exploités pour développer de nouvelles armes.

Par contre, si j’étais un politicien palestinien, je me servirais de cette étude pour revoir ma stratégie et gérer différemment ce conflit. En effet, les chiffres montrent que les pays arabes (à part l’Irak) et l’Iran ont perdu huit fois plus qu’Israël. Donc comme politicien arabe, je me poserais de sérieuses questions quant aux résultats obtenus par rapport aux gigantesques dépenses engendrées."

De son côté, l’ancien ministre des travaux publics de l’autorité palestinienne, Mohammed Stayyeh, demande qu’on parle des coûts de l’occupation israélienne -et non du conflit israélo-palestinien:

"Une occupation qui profite économiquement à Israël. Un tiers de l’eau des cuisines israéliennes provient de Cisjordanie. Voilà dix-huit ans que le processus de paix se poursuit sans résultat tangible. Nous sommes obligés de reconstruire en boucle nos infrastructures avec les donations internationales. Il m’est arrivé de reconstruire jusqu’à cinq fois le même pont. Et c’est votre argent qui est gaspillé!"

Source: www.rue89.com

Playing into the hands of Hamas

Israel and Hamas are not equals on the battlefield - not at all, clearly - and when the power to harm or control others is this uneven, it is meaningless to speak about moral symmetry. But as the current onslaught in Gaza unfolds, it is sadly evident that both sides are continuing to respond to real provocations in ways that are not morally right, or even politically smart.

If Hamas thought that lobbing missiles into Israeli civilian neighborhoods was a decent or proportionate response to the grim realities of the occupation, they were wrong. On the other hand, if Israel thinks it can bludgeon the Palestinians into political surrender, or get Hamas - or the Palestinian community at large, for that matter - to acquiesce to military occupation then it, too, is wrong.

There is no military solution to this conflict. Until both sides fully grasp this, the world can expect only continuing violence and vendetta, with civilians on both sides paying the price for leaders who - because of pressure, ambition or hubris - feel that they must do the most damage, fire the last shot or make the most credible threat. Indeed, it is sad, and repellent, to hear military correspondents speak of "teaching a lesson," "increasing pressure," "making a statement," achieving "deterrence," when those they are reporting on are really trying to control the news cycle, or win arguable (and in any case temporary) psychological advantage, by killing, or accepting the deaths of, people at random on the other side.

Operation Cast Lead - the heart-wrenching death and wanton destruction the Israeli army is inflicting on Gaza as we write - is the product of just such thinking. In the first week, Israeli air raids killed over 500 people, many of them non-combatants; invading ground forces have now killed 100 more. Israelis knew in advance that Hamas forces are not a regular army; they will not come out of hiding and be mowed down like soldiers in World War I. To go after them effectively, in, of all places, the Gaza Strip, one of the most densely populated places on earth, the IDF would have to level its towns and cities, block by block, and intensify the nightmare of the Gazan population, more than half of which is children under the age of 15.

This cannot succeed in achieving Israel's stated aim of degrading Hamas' long-term capabilities and motivation. It will certainly not undermine Hamas' appeal, especially since the electricity and water infrastructures are also inevitably targeted. Now that Israeli soldiers have been killed in this tragic operation, there are the unavoidable cries that the IDF "go all the way," so their deaths would not have been in vain. But Israel cannot make Hamas surrender - it cannot "win." Meanwhile, the carnage will help Hamas, and other Palestinian military factions, make their case - not only in Gaza, but across the West Bank too. A glorious stand will even turn them into cultural heroes among Israel's Palestinian Arab citizens.

It should be clear by now that Hamas' appeal only grows when Israelis attacks Palestinians. It increased when Israel insisted that occupied territory was merely "disputed," ignoring its obligations under international law, and tried to dissociate its unilateral "disengagement" from Gaza from the continuing occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Hamas appealed to circles upon circles of Palestinian youth, who, grieving for friends or relatives killed in clashes with occupation forces, or appalled by iron-fist policies, succumbed to rage or survivors' guilt. Its appeal increased in the absence of any concrete progress toward peace, indeed, when the peacemaking process seemed endlessly stalled.

Hamas' appeal spread, finally, when Palestinian economic life seemed futile, or inevitably corrupt - when a fight to the last martyr seemed the only chance at a meaningful life - or death. Give Gazans open borders, relief from grinding poverty, and business opportunities with West Bank and foreign partners and, over time, this will win over Hamas-controlled tunnels and smuggling every time. The Palestinian private sector, centered in Ramallah, has begged Israel and the international community for 18 months to allow it access to Gaza, to build new businesses. Israel refused. Tragically, many who have been killed this past week were not Hamas militants, but rather Palestinians who worked in Hamas-run ministries or institutions because they had no choice if they wanted to feed and clothe their children.

The critical point, surely, is that one cannot do in two weeks with force what you need to do over a generation with reciprocity. Even as it worked toward an overall solution to the conflict, Israel could have respected international law regarding occupation, observed the Geneva conventions, helped build Palestinian civil society, stopped settlement construction, invited international monitors, and allowed Palestinians to compete non-violently, politically, economically and socially. It could have, in short, allowed for unity and rationality in Palestinian politics. This is not, well, rocket science.

By Bernard Avishai and Sam Bahour
Source: www.haaretz.com

Behind the Scenes of a Joint Israeli-Palestinian School

Source:Common Ground News Service.

ذاتی دفاع کا حق امن کی درست حکمتِ عملی نہیں

واشنگٹن، ڈی سی: اسرائیلی نقطہ نظر کے مطابق غزہ پر حالیہ حملوں میں عام فلسطینی شہریوں کی ہلاکت اور بین الاقوامی غم و غصّہ حماس کی طاقت کو کچلنے کی قیمت ہے۔ یہ مقصد کافی گمراہ کن ہے۔ اگرچہ اس بات کا امکان ہے کہ اسرائیل فوری طور پر حماس کے راکٹوں کی تیاری کو آہستہ کرنے میں کامیاب ہو جائے گا۔ لیکن 2006 میں لبنان کے محاصرے کی طرح غزہ کی فوجی حکمتِ عملی بھی حماس کی قیادت کو کمزور کرنے یا علاقے میں دیرپا بنیادوں پر سلامتی کو یقینی بنانے میں کامیاب نہیں ہو گی۔

اسرائیل اور فلسطین دونوں کو اپنا دفاع کرنے کا حق حاصل ہے۔ لیکن دفاع کرنے کے حق اور حالیہ تشدد اورحملوں کو ختم کرنے کی مؤثر حکمتِ عملی میں فرق ہے۔

حماس کے راکٹوں کے بنیادی اجزا دھات کے ڈبّے اور بارود سے بھرے وہ تھیلے نہیں ہیں جو مصر سے سرنگوں کے راستے لائے جاتے ہیں اور جنہیں بعدازاں غزہ کے گیراجوں میں تیار کیا اور داغا جاتا ہے۔ غزہ کے انفراسٹرکچر کو تباہ کرنے اور حماس کے ارکان کو مارنے سے وہ محرک تباہ نہیں ہوتا جو ایک نوجوان فلسطینی لڑکے کو پتھر اٹھانے یا جسم سے بارود باندھ کر اڑانے پر مجبور کرتا ہے۔ حماس کے راکٹوں کا اصلی نسخہ تو مایوسی اور احساسِ ذلت کا وہ ماحول ہے جو غربت اور سیاسی نااہلی کے ایک پیچیدہ مُرّکب سے بنا ہے۔

غزہ ایک ایسی جیل ہے جہاں بے روزگاری کی شرح 45 فیصد ہے۔ اقوامِ متحدہ کے اعداد و شمار کے مطابق یہ دنیا میں بے روزگاری کی بلند ترین شرح ہے۔ یہاں کی نصف آبادی 18 سال سے کم عمر افراد پر مشتمل ہے جب کہ ایک تہائی لوگ پناہ گزین کیمپوں میں رہتے ہیں۔ فلسطینیوں کے پاس زمین بہت تھوڑی ہے اور انہیں بہت کم حقوق حاصل ہیں۔

غزہ کا محاصرہ فلسطینی علاقوں میں بھی انتہاپسند قیادت کو اسی طرح متحد کر سکتا ہے جیسے 2006 میں لبنان پر اسرائیلی حملوں سے حزب اللہ مضبوط ہوئی تھی۔ ان حملوں کے نتیجے میں غزہ اور مغربی کنارے میں اعتدال پسند قیادت کمزور ہوجاتی ہے کیونکہ اسرائیلی حملوں کے تناظر میں لوگ ان رہنماؤں کو نااہل اور بے کار سمجھنے لگتے ہیں۔ چونکہ غزہ میں صرف اعتدال پسند لوگ ہی مستقبل میں اسرائیل کے ساتھ بقائے باہمی پر رضامند ہیں اس لئے یہ سوچ کر حیرت ہوتی ہے کہ آخر اسرائیل مستقبل میں کس کے ساتھ گفت و شنید کی توقع لگائے بیٹھا ہے۔ اسرائیل کی فوجی حکمتِ عملی سیکورٹی کا حصول مزید دشوار بنا دے گی۔

یہی کُلیہ اسرائیل میں مزید اعتدال پسند قیادت کے امکانات پر بھی صادق آتا ہے۔ حماس کے حملوں نے اعتدال پسند اسرائیلی سیاست دانوں کے لئے امن کی بات کرنا مشکل بنا دیا ہے۔ حماس کے راکٹ حملے اس بات کا ثبوت ہیں کہ فلسطینی یونہی الگ تھلگ اور بین الاقوامی حمایت سے محروم رہیں گے۔ ان راکٹوں کی وجہ سے فلسطینیوں کا اپنے وطن اور جائز انسانی حقوق کے لئے انتظار طویل ہورہا ہے۔

اسرائیل کے لئے سیکورٹی اور حماس کے لئے وطن اور فلسطینیوں کے انسانی حقوق کے مقاصد حاصل کرنے کے لئے ایک بہتر اور ذہانت سے تیار کی گئی سٹریٹجی درکار ہے۔ امن اور سلامتی کے اجزائے ترکیبی یک طرفہ منصوبوں سے نہیں ملتے بلکہ اس کے لئے دونوں اطراف کی برابر توجہ اور ہمدردانہ رویّے کی ضرورت ہے۔

اس حکمتِ عملی کا آغاز وجہ اور اثر کی نئی اور مزید مشمولہ تعریف سے ہوتا ہے۔ غزہ پر حالیہ حملے کے حوالے سے اسرائیل کی کہانی اسرائیلی گھروں اور اسکولوں پر حماس کے راکٹوں کی بارش کے ناقابلِ معافی جرم سے شروع ہوتی ہے جس میں دو ہزار سال پر محیط امتیازی سلوک اور خوف سے بھری تاریخ کی بازگشت سنائی دیتی ہے۔

فلسطینیوں کی کہانی کا محور اپنی زمین، گھر اور کاروبار دوسروں کے ہاتھوں چھن جانا ہے جس کے نتیجے میں بہت سے لوگ پناہ گزین بن کر چھوٹے چھوٹے اجاڑ علاقوں میں محصور ہو گئے ہیں۔

ایک مؤثر حکمتِ عملی میں دونوں اطراف کی کہانیوں میں موجود جائز تحفّظات کو تسلیم کیا جانا چاہیے۔ فلسطینی اور اسرائیلی دونوں کی اس خطّے سے تاریخی وابستگی ہے۔ دونوں یہ جانتے ہیں کہ بغیر وطن والی قوم ہونا کیسا لگتا ہے اور دونوں میں اس سرزمین کو دوبارہ حاصل کرنے کا جذبہ موجود ہے جسے وہ اپنا سمجھتے ہیں۔ دونوں ہی خود کو دوسرے کا ستم گزیدہ سمجھتے ہیں۔

ایک بہتر اور دانشمندانہ حکمتِ عملی وہ ہوگی جس میں حماس اسرائیل کے بقا کے حق اور سلامتی جب کہ اسرائیل فلسطینیوں کی اندر پائی جانے والی بے چینی کا احساس کرتے ہوئے اس کی سیاسی اور اقتصادی وجوہات کو دور کرے۔

فلسطینیوں کو ایک ملک، کہیں بھی آنے جانے کی آزادی اور ملازمتیں پیدا کرنے کے لئے بین الاقوامی تعاون کی ضرورت ہے۔ رائے عامہ کے سروے بتاتے ہیں کہ دونوں طرف بے شمار ایسے لوگ موجود ہیں جو ان اقدامات کی حمایت کرتے ہیں۔ وقت آگیا ہے کہ رہاست ہائے متحدہ امریکہ اور بین الاقوامی برادری اسرائیل اور فلسطین کے اعتدال پسندوں کے پیچھے کھڑی ہو اور انہیں ان انتہاپسندوں کے ہاتھوں گمراہ ہونے کی اجازت نہ دیں جو اس سیاسی اور اقتصادی مسئلے کا صرف فوجی حل تلاش کرنا چاہتے ہیں۔

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* لیزا شرِچ ایسٹرن مینو نائیٹ یونیورسٹی میں تعمیرِ امن کی پروفیسر اور تھری ڈی سیکورٹی سرگرمی کی ڈائریکٹر ہیں۔ یہ مضمون کامن گراؤنڈ نیوز سروس (سی جی نیوز) کے لئے لکھا گیا ہے اوراسے درج ذیل ویب سائٹ سے حاصل کیا جاسکتا ہے:
www.commongroundnews.org

"הזכות" להגנה עצמית איננה "אסטרטגיה" לשלום

ושינגטון הבירה – מנקודת מבט ישראלית, הזעם הבינלאומי ואובדן חיי האזרחים הפלסטינים בהתקפות האחרונות בעזה שווים את המחיר במטרה לרסק את יכולות התקיפה של החמאס. המטרה מפתה וסביר מאוד שישראל תצליח להאט את קצב פיתוח הרקטות של חמאס בטווח הקצר. אבל בדומה למצור של ישראל על לבנון ב-2006, האסטרטגיה הצבאית של ישראל בעזה – אסטרטגיה שנועדה להדהים ולזעזע – לא תפגע בהנהגת החמאס ולא תשיג ביטחון לאורך זמן.

גם לישראל וגם לעזה יש זכות להגנה עצמית. אך הזכות להגנה עצמית איננה אסטרטגיה אפקטיבית לסיום ההתקפות והאלימות המתמשכת.

רכיבי המפתח ברקטות של החמאס אינם יציקות מתכת ושקים של חומר נפץ שמועברים במנהרות ממצרים ואז מיוצרים ונורים מאחורי בתים בעזה.

פיצוץ התשתיות בעזה והריגת אנשי החמאס אינם פוגעים כהוא זה במוטיבציה שמניעה צעירים פלסטינים ליטול אבן לידיהם או להצמיד פצצה לגופם.

המתכון האמיתי לרקטות של החמאס הוא אווירת הייאוש וההשפלה שנוצרה על רקע המציאות המורכבת של עוני וחוסר אונים פוליטי.

עזה היא בית כלא. האבטלה בה עומדת על 45%, הגבוהה בעולם לדברי האו"ם. מחצית האוכלוסיה מתחת לגיל 18 ושליש מהאוכלוסיה מתגוררת במחנות פליטים. לפלסטינים מעט אדמה וזכויות ספורות. חומר הבעירה של היאוש וההשפלה מייצר דורות חדשים של קיצונים ודחף להשגת רקטות מתוחכמות יותר.

המצור על עזה יכול אולי לחזק את ההנהגה הקיצונית בשטחים הפלסטינים באותו האופן שבו התקפות ישראל בלבנון ב-2006 חיזקו את חיזבאללה. התקיפות חותרות תחת התפתחותה של הנהגה מתונה בעזה ובגדה המערבית מאחר שמנהיגים מתונים מצטיירים בעיני הציבור חסרי אונים בזמן תקיפות ישראליות.

מאחר שרק מנהיגים מתונים בעזה מראים נכונות לעתיד משותף עם ישראל, עולה השאלה עם מי ישראל מצפה לנהל משא ומתן בעתיד. האסטרטגיה הצבאית הישראלית פוגעת מאוד ביכולתה להשיג את יעדה -- ביטחון.

באופן דומה קטנו גם הסיכויים שתקום הנהגה מתונה יותר בישראל.

תקיפות החמאס מקשות על פוליטיקאים ישראלים לנהל מו"מ לשלום. מטחי הרקטות של החמאס פועלות להבטיח שהפלסטינים יישארו מבודדים ללא סיוע בינלאומי.

הרקטות מאריכות את ההמתנה הפלסטינית לעצמאות מדינית ולזכויות האדם הלגיטמיות שלהם.

על מנת להשיג את יעדה של ישראל לביטחון ואת יעדיו של החמאס לעצמאות וזכויות פלסטיניות יהיה צורך באסטרטגיה משופרת וחכמה יותר. המתכון לשלום וביטחון איננו טמון בתוכניות חד-צדדיות; הוא דורש תשומת לב ואמפטיה משני הצדדים.

ראשיתה של האסטרטגיה החדשה בנרטיב חדש ואינקלוסיבי של סיבה ותוצאה. הנרטיבים השולטים בישראל מתחילים את הסיפור של ההתקפות האחרונות בעזה במטחים הבלתי-מוצדקים של רקטות שהחמאס משגר לעבר משפחות ובתי ספר בישראל ומהדהדת ממנו היסטוריה בת יותר מאלפיים שנה של אפלייה ופחד. הנרטיב הפלסטיני השולט מתמקד באובדן הנורא של האדמות, הבתים והעסקים בידי זרים, אובדן שהפך רבים מהם לפליטים הנדחקים למובלעות קטנות ושוממות.

אסטרטגיה אפקטיבית חייבת להכיר בתוקף העוולות שניצבות במוקד הנרטיבים של שני הצדדים. גם לפלסטינים וגם לישראלים מורשת היסטורית אזורית.

שני הצדדים מכירים יד-ראשונה מה זה להיות עם ללא ארץ ושותפים לתשוקה להחזיק באדמה שהם רואים בה את אדמתם. שני הצדדים חשים שנפלו קורבן האחד בידי השני.

אסטרטגיה חכמה יותר עבור החמאס היא להכיר בזכותה של ישראל לקיום ולביטחון. אסטרטגיה חכמה יותר עבור ישראל היא להכיר בייאוש הכלכלי והפוליטי בקרב הפלסטינים ולספק לו מענה. הפלסטינים זקוקים למדינה, חופש תנועה ומקומות עבודה בסיוע בינלאומי.

סקרי דעת קהל מראים שיש מספיק אנשים משני הצדדים שתומכים בצעדים האלה. הגיע הזמן שארצות הברית והקהילה הבינלאומית יתיצבו מאחורי המתונים הישראלים והפלסטינים במקום להרשות לתשומת לבם לנדוד בעקבות הניצים בשני הצדדים, שמחפשים פתרון צבאי חמקמק לבעיה פוליטית וכלכלית.

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*ליזה שירך היא פרופסורית ללימודי שלום באוניברסיטת מיניסוטה המזרחית ומנהלת הפרויקט
3D Security Initiative. המאמר נכתב ותורגם מאנגלית עבור שירות החדשות של קומון גראונד (CGNews).

פורסם במקור על ידי שירות החדשות של קומון גראונד (CGNews), 15 בינואר 2009,
www.commongroundnews.org

The right to self-defence is not a strategy for peace

From an Israeli perspective, the cost in international outrage and Palestinian civilian lives of the current attacks on Gaza is worth the price of crushing Hamas’s firepower. The goal is seductive, and Israel will likely succeed in slowing the development of rockets by Hamas in the short term. But just like Israel’s siege of Lebanon in 2006, the Israeli “shock and awe” military strategy in Gaza will not undermine Hamas’s leadership or bring long term security.

Both Israel and Gaza have a right to defend themselves. But there is a difference between a right to defence and an effective strategy for ending the attacks and ongoing violence.

The key ingredients of Hamas’s rockets are not metal casings and bags of explosives brought through tunnels from Egypt, and then built and launched from Gazan garages.

Blasting Gazan infrastructure and killing members of Hamas do nothing to destroy the motivation that compels a young Palestinian boy to pick up a rock or strap explosives to his body.

The real recipe for Hamas’s rockets is an environment of desperation and humiliation spawned by a complicated brew of poverty and political impotence.

Gaza is a prison with 45% unemployment, the highest in the world according to the United Nations. Half the population is under 18 and a third of the population lives in refugee camps. Palestinians have little land and few rights. This fuel of despair and humiliation gives rise to new generations of extremists and an ambition for more sophisticated rockets.

The siege of Gaza could consolidate extremist leadership in the Palestinian territories in the same way Israel’s 2006 attacks on Lebanon strengthened Hizbullah. The attacks undermine the development of moderate leadership in Gaza and the West Bank as moderate leaders look impotent to their people in the face of Israel’s attacks.

Since only moderate leaders in Gaza are willing to look at a future of coexistence with Israel, one wonders with whom Israel expects to negotiate in the future. Israel’s military strategy will make security that much more difficult to achieve.

The same is also true for the prospects of more moderate leadership in Israel.

Hamas’s attacks make it more difficult for moderate Israeli politicians to negotiate for peace. Hamas’s rocket attacks ensure that Palestinians will remain isolated and cut off from international support.

The rockets prolong the Palestinian wait for a homeland and for their legitimate human rights.

Achieving both Israel’s goal of security and Hamas’s goals of land and human rights for Palestinians requires a better, smarter strategy. The recipe for peace and security comes not from one-sided plans. Rather, it requires equal attention and empathy from both sides.

The strategy starts with a new, more inclusive narrative of cause and effect. The predominant Israeli narrative vis-a-vis the current attack on Gaza starts with the inexcusable shower of Hamas rockets on Israeli homes and schools and resonates with a history of more than 2000 years of discrimination and fear. The predominant Palestinian narrative centres on the devastating loss of their land, homes and businesses to others, causing many to become refugees crowded into small, barren enclaves.

An effective strategy must acknowledge legitimate grievances present in the narratives on both sides. Both Palestinians and Israelis have a historical legacy in the region.

Both know what it is like to be a people without a land and share the passion to retain what they see as their land. Both feel victimised by the other.

A smarter strategy would be for Hamas to recognise Israel’s right to existence and safety and for Israel to recognise and address the economic and political fuel of desperation among Palestinians. Palestinians need a state, freedom of movement and international assistance to create jobs.

Public opinion polls show there are plenty of people on both sides who support these steps. It’s time the United States and the international community stood behind Israeli and Palestinian moderates, rather than allowing themselves to be distracted by the militants on both sides who search for an elusive military solution to this political and economic problem.

By Lisa Schirch
Source: Common Ground News Service.

An inaugural address to Palestinians and Israelis

[An excerpt from an imagined inaugural address by President Barack Obama]

These are dark days for those who believe in peace in the Holy Land. But history has shown that violence can give way to reason, new realities and unforeseen opportunities. It is for us to seek them out, explore them, and foster them.

To the Palestinian people, on this day we declare ourselves your allies.

Allies, because we know that your desire for peace, for a stable and productive future, for freedom and self-determination, is real.

Your cause is just. Your challenge is monumental. You have made heroic sacrifices. But if your children are to know peace, and an independent Palestine, there will be new sacrifices to make which will demand no less bravery on your part, and perhaps much more.

As you choose your battles, so you will need to choose your dreams.

Choose peace. Renew your commitment to co-existence. Make that choice, and we pledge to be more than a fair broker. We will be your advocate.

We have learned your history, we have come to know of the tragedies you have suffered and the pain you have endured. We admire you for your determination. We esteem your deep attachment to the Holy Land. We know that you cannot be broken. We know that you cannot be forced, cannot be brought to heel.

We know that that the vast majority of Palestinians still support a peace of two states for two peoples, but that they have lost their belief in it.

Our own history, our own struggles and pain, have shown us that a house divided against itself cannot stand. But we have learned, at the same time, that healing renews strength and feeds hope. Healing promotes unity and, in time, addresses anger.

We will not be idle. We pledge, first and foremost, to listen to you.

Together with partners in the international community, we pledge to help you rebuild. We pledge, as well, to help you begin to rebuild a bridge to peace. We know that many a bridge to peace has frayed and fallen into the chasm. Make the choice, and we pledge to stand with you as you take the first testing steps on that bridge.

To the people of Israel: in this place, in this difficult hour, we freely declare our gratitude for your long friendship, and underscore our commitment to your security.

We take the liberty to speak with the frankness of old friends. The conflict, if it is to be resolved, requires new thinking and fresh perceptions, and a renewed commitment to compromise.

We know that for the vast majority of Israelis, the goal of peace is paramount. During the 1990s, Israelis and Palestinians took courageous steps toward one another, finding themselves allies in a search of an end to endless warfare.

Since then, however, the minority of extremists on both sides, the enemies of peace whose actions darken the lives of the majority, have scored notable gains. Those whose actions are aimed at crippling compromise and the belief in peace have thrived.

For Israelis to begin to cross a new bridge to peace will require faith, and dependable friends. We make this pledge: we will not stand idly by. We will stand with you on that bridge.

To the Israelis and the Palestinians, both:

No peoples on earth have fought longer or more tenaciously for freedom and justice and security. For that very fact, until both peoples have a peace which includes freedom, justice and security, neither will.

The Holy Land is by its nature a sacred trust. It belongs to you, and to the world as well. Your peace is the peace of the world.

To believe in peace is to value children by fostering their future. We will ask your opinion and esteem it. We want to hear not only from leaders, but from parents, children, grandparents and clergy. Write to us.

Tell us your feelings, your fears, your ideas for a solution.

We will listen to you. We see no greater honour, no greater diplomatic imperative, than to support you, Palestinians and Israelis, in a defiant struggle, against all odds, for peace.

By Bradley Burston
Source: Common Ground News Service.

Trouver la paix entre fanatisme et désordre

La crise actuelle, amorcée par les provocations volontaires du Hamas, et le droit légitime de riposte d'Israël illustrent très profondément et hélas très dramatiquement l'incapacité des parties en cause à construire une politique, c'est-à-dire un mode de relations respectueux des droits légitimes de chacun. D'un côté, l'unité palestinienne n'a pu se réaliser et l'affrontement provoqué par le Hamas contre le Fatah par la forme brutale qu'il a prise a, malheureusement, renforcé l'incapacité israélienne de définir, pour sa part, une politique constructive permettant une cohabitation pacifique dans la région.

Qu'on ne s'étonne pas que je veuille ici déplorer particulièrement l'absence en Israël d'un véritable débat de politique extérieure et, par conséquent, l'absence de toute proposition constructive permettant d'envisager un avenir pacifique. C'est le droit de chaque Etat de définir le tracé idéal de ses frontières, mais, en l'occurrence, ni le gouvernement israélien ni la Knesset n'ont jamais mené un débat sérieux concernant le tracé d'une frontière avec un Etat palestinien. De même qu'ils n'ont jamais défini quel pourrait être le statut des personnes non juives à l'intérieur d'un Etat d'Israël qui irait jusqu'au Jourdain. Il est clair que c'est le Hamas qui a provoqué la crise actuelle, comme il est clair que c'est l'incapacité israélienne à définir des propositions constructives, comme à ne pas laisser au président de l'Autorité palestinienne la moindre liberté ni la moindre autonomie sur la moindre partie de la Cisjordanie, qui nourrit auprès des populations palestiniennes des sentiments favorables au Hamas.

Quelques jours avant son accession au pouvoir, Ariel Sharon m'avait déclaré - je le reconnais, à ma grande satisfaction - qu'il n'y avait pas de solution militaire, mais seulement une solution politique au conflit. Il est tragique pour moi de devoir reconnaître aujourd'hui que le système électoral et politique d'Israël porte une part importante, sinon déterminante, dans le maintien d'un statu quo meurtrier qui ne bénéficie finalement qu'aux djihadistes de tous bords. Bien sûr, le vide politique est encore plus profond du côté des Palestiniens. Mais les Etats arabes, depuis la conférence de la Ligue arabe à Beyrouth, ont fait un pas important, renforcé récemment notamment par le roi d'Arabie saoudite, qui ouvrait - en reconnaissant le droit à l'existence de l'Etat d'Israël dans les frontières de 1967 - la porte d'une négociation fermée brutalement au lendemain de la guerre des Six-Jours par les trois non de Khartoum.

Il y a donc encore, du moins je l'espère profondément, un avenir pacifique possible au Moyen-Orient, à condition de ne plus se laisser piéger par le fanatisme des uns et l'immobilisme ou le désordre électoral et politique des autres. Faut-il rappeler l'initiative du président égyptien Sadate, d'abord rejetée par le premier ministre Golda Meir, puis finalement acceptée par Menahem Begin sur la suggestion de Moshé Dayan. Alors, le courage politique avait surmonté les blocages idéologiques ou, plus simplement, aveugles.

Ceux qui s'efforcent de jeter un regard au-delà des catastrophiques violences actuelles rêvent d'un Moyen-Orient où Israël, enfin de retour à son passé oriental, participerait à l'émergence politique et économique de cette région si profondément inscrite dans la marche de l'humanité.

*Théo Klein est avocat, ancien président du CRIF.

Source: Le Monde.

De Gaza à Paris, la manipulation

L'éditorial d'Yves Thréard du 13 janvier

Des milliers de musulmans ont été tués en Tchétchénie, au Darfour et ailleurs, mais on n'a pas souvenir que leur tragédie suscite en France autre chose qu'une compassion contenue. Une guerre oppose, au Proche-Orient, Israël aux islamistes du Hamas, et les passions se déchaînent ici ou là. À tel point qu'on redoute que ce conflit propage de malsains relents sur notre sol.
Parce que la France compte 600 000 juifs et quelque 6 millions de musulmans, il faudrait qu'ils épousent, pour les premiers, la cause de l'État hébreu, pour les seconds, celle des Palestiniens. Comme s'il leur fallait être de l'un ou l'autre camp. Vision fausse, réductrice et absurde, qu'il convient de combattre sans répit.

Certes, d'importantes manifestations, surtout en faveur des Gazaouis, ont été organisées ces jours-ci. Mais elles ne résument pas l'état d'esprit majoritaire de ces Français - faut-il rappeler qu'ils portent cette nationalité ? - qui observent, non sans inquiétude, mais sans prendre parti, l'inextricable drame du Proche-Orient.

Aux pouvoirs publics, aux partis politiques, aux associations dites communautaires et aux médias d'assumer leurs responsabilités en conscience, pour éviter toute confusion des sentiments, des émotions, des opinions.

Car, chez quelques-uns, c'est vrai, là est l'occasion de cultiver un terreau de divisions pour réveiller de vieilles haines, contester l'ordre républicain ou favoriser le militantisme - l'obscurantisme - religieux.

Ceux qui servent ces desseins vont au-delà du débat de fond. On peut critiquer la politique du gouvernement israélien, les conditions de création de l'État hébreu, les méthodes d'action des Palestiniens, l'exploitation que telle ou telle organisation fait de la religion, l'attitude des autorités françaises.

On ne doit pas, en revanche, admettre que les mots perdent leur sens ou dépassent la raison. C'est le cas quand l'Union des organisations islamiques de France (UOIF) parle «d'un génocide sans précédent» à Gaza sur son site Internet. C'est le cas lorsque des dévots du Hezbollah ou du Hamas défilent dans Paris au cri de «Tremblez, juifs de France». C'est le cas quand des leaders d'extrême gauche distribuent des tracts pour évoquer un «nettoyage ethnique». C'est encore le cas lorsque des intellectuels décrivent un «holocauste» en Palestine. Même Rama Yade eût été bien inspirée en évitant la «martyrisation de Gaza».

Souvent, ces messages fleurent mauvais l'antisémitisme. Ils sont pourtant relayés par de nombreux médias, images à l'appui, sans autre forme de procès. Ils n'expliquent pas les attaques enregistrées ces derniers jours contre des synagogues ou des personnes mais encouragent n'importe quelle dérive. Il faut donc les condamner. Sans ajouter d'huile sur le feu, sans céder à la généralisation, comme le font parfois des représentants juifs. Car il convient de prendre ces slogans pour ce qu'ils sont : d'odieuses provocations et manipulations. Au Proche-Orient, il n'y a pas un camp du bien et un autre du mal. Mais, à Paris, la haine et le venin sont du côté des pseudo-pacifistes. Ne nous y trompons pas.

Palestinians have the key

As the war of Gaza worsens, the prospects for peace look grim today. But crises can be turned into opportunities by visionary eyes, caring hearts and thoughtful minds. The cycle of violence may continue for some time. But ultimately, Israelis and Palestinians will have to think outside the box in order to achieve a just and peaceful resolution to their conflict. This could take months, years or decades.

If Palestinians unite in their resistance and organise for peace and democracy, they could inspire Israelis to end the occupation. In the face of a nonviolent Palestinian struggle of civic, legal and political liberation, Israel would quickly lose its capacity to sustain a military occupation.

The kind of peaceful resistance that would end the occupation by softening the attitudes of the occupier, shifting the opinion of the international community and strengthening the Israeli peace camp is unlimited in scope: e.g. labour strikes, massive demonstrations, interfaith advocacy, student protest, women-solidarity marches, peace camp rallies involving Israelis, political theatre and parent protests.

Those Palestinians who support leadership that does not believe in the existence of Israel tempt extreme or opportune Israeli leaders to think of unthinkable alternatives to the status-quo, such as the ongoing ruthless assault in Gaza, forced Arab emigration, ethnic cleansing or displacement to Jordan.

Israel needs an Obama-like leader to stimulate hope in people; instead, Israel entertains the likes of Benjamin Netanyahu, a status-quo politician, returning to power. Similarly, Palestinians need a Mandela-like leader to anchor the struggle on co-existence; what they have now are short-sighted leaders.

While Americans have elected Obama in hopes that he will take a new approach to resolving domestic and international conflicts, the results of the Israeli election on 10 February 2009 may not reflect the will of a population ready for change. Israelis appear comfortable, or at least not compelled to change, when it comes to their continued settlement expansion – in the West Bank and East Jerusalem – and building a monumental exclusive wall to handle a threatening, albeit ineffective Palestinian resistance.

The Gaza war may be a game-changing political development with an impact on the coming Israeli national elections and the future relations between the Arab world and Israel. The Gaza war is reinforcing Palestinian and Arab doubt in Israel’s willingness to relinquish the occupied territories in exchange for peace.

Regrettably, today, Palestinians are poorly led, war fatigued and too ideologically divided to plan creative solutions for ending the occupation of their land. To gain decisive power in negotiating peace with Israel, Palestinians must unite, commit to civic struggle and govern democratically. By establishing one authority in Gaza and another in the West Bank in 2007, Palestinians weakened their negotiating power. By settling their internal conflict with force, Palestinians unwittingly send a message to Israel that force is the “language” of the region.

Palestinians need more friends in Israel to activate the engines of reconciliation. For most Israelis, peacemaking is risk taking. Israeli public sentiment is key for peace. As long as Israelis lack trust in others, their steps to peace falter. When Palestinians are divided, they limit the chances for Israeli moderates to lobby for reconciliation, compromise and concessions. When Palestinians fight each other, they offer extreme Israeli politicians an excuse, if not a rationale, to advocate shelving the peace process.

Neither side of the conflict is on the side of angels. Some Palestinians dream of re-possessing Palestine through rapid demographic growth, and some Israelis dream of ethnic cleansing. Without intending to do so, extremes on both sides are working to fulfil each others’ nightmares.

As the Gaza war expands and as the images of civilian casualties are repeatedly displayed on the TV screen, Hamas popularity will be boosted among Palestinians. Similarly, as Hamas continues to shell rockets on civilians and rejects Israel’s existence, it offers extremists in Israel a chance to regain power and continue the rule of force.

The key to the Palestinian struggle for justice is peaceful and well organised resistance against the occupation. As Israelis get the message that the occupation is the only barrier to peace, moderates will take over from the extremists in defending the true interest of their state: security through co-existence.

By Dr. Ghassan Michel Rubeiz
Source: Common Ground News Service, www.commongroundnews.org.

Palestinian and Israeli women on Courage

Call for an immediate Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire

Every effort to protect innocent people in Gaza from being killed or injured must be made, and the rocket attacks on Israeli civilians must stop.

An immediate ceasefire should be entered into with an international, multinational monitoring presence dispatched to ensure compliance. Even more humanitarian aid must flow to those Palestinians who are in desperate need.

It is deeply mistaken to believe that the current path of armed conflict will bring peace. It will not. Violence breeds more violence, increases human suffering, and delays the long, hard work of building a just peace.

Peace can come to the Middle East, but only by honouring the rights of both the Palestinians and Israelis, facilitating painful but honourable compromises through sustained dialogue, and engaging the moral convictions shared by Jews, Christians and Muslims who know the Holy Land to be their common home.

Morally responsible Israelis and Palestinians know that the “right to self defence” can never be used as an excuse for killing, harming or inflicting collective punishment on innocent civilians. These abuses fuel the spiral of violence.

In Gaza, scores of innocent civilians, including many children, have been killed over the last week and a half. Military action has dissected Gaza, with innocent civilians trapped in the crossfire. The entire population is under siege. Already desperately short of medicine, food and fuel, many residents in Gaza face an extremely grave humanitarian crisis, notwithstanding the critically important aid being delivered during the times of temporary ceasefire.

In Israel, innocent civilians continue to be mortally threatened by the ongoing rocket attacks against them. They have endured eight years of rocket attacks.

Neither the suffering of so many innocent Palestinians, nor the rocket attacks or suicide bombing targeting innocent Israelis can be justified. These acts are morally wrong, fuel cycles of violence and block the path to peace.

The Israeli and Palestinian leaders must initiate an immediate ceasefire. This ceasefire should be internationally monitored to ensure compliance. Additional urgently needed provisions and humanitarian supplies must be provided to the Palestinians in Gaza. At the same time, peace negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians, with the full assistance of principled third parties, must begin.

Finally, Jews, Christians and Muslims, supported by the goodwill of believers of all religious faiths, should unite in their efforts to build peace. Religions for Peace knows that real security is “shared security,” and that the other’s peace is also their own. In the Middle East, there will be no peace for anyone unless there is peace with justice for all.

By Dr. William F. Vendley
Source: Religions for Peace, www.wcrp.org.

Israel resumes attack after pause for aid delivery

Israel said Wednesday that it would send senior officials to talk with Egypt about halting the conflict in Gaza, but there were no immediate signs of a diplomatic breakthrough. Fighting between Israel and Hamas militants continued after a brief pause earlier in the day.

International pressure for a negotiated cease-fire intensified a day after Israeli shells killed some 40 people at a United Nations school in Gaza. Israel said Hamas militants had fired mortar shells near the school prior to Israel's shelling.

Israel suspended its military operations in Gaza for three hours on Wednesday to allow humanitarian aid and fuel for power generation to reach Gazans, who used the afternoon break to try to shop.

But fighting resumed soon afterward. In the evening, the Israeli Army dropped leaflets warning the citizens of Rafah, next to the border with Egypt, to leave their homes. Israel has been bombing the tunnel networks through which arms and consumer goods are smuggled from Egypt into Gaza.

Hamas fired 22 rockets into Israel, but no one was wounded.

The Israeli government said it welcomed the efforts of France and Egypt to work out a durable cease-fire. It said it would end its assault if Hamas stopped firing rockets from Gaza into Israel and ended the smuggling of weapons from Egypt. It said that if a durable cease-fire took hold, it would reopen border crossings into Gaza for goods and people. But Israeli and Hamas officials both denied an assertion by the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, that a cease-fire had been agreed upon.

"There is an agreement on general principles, that Hamas should stop rocket fire and mustn't rearm," a senior Israeli official said Wednesday evening. "But that's like agreeing that motherhood is a good thing. We have to transform those agreed principles into working procedures on the ground, and that's barely begun."

The government spokesman, Mark Regev, said that "the challenge now is to get the details to match the principles."

There were early signs that a formal diplomatic negotiation could begin after 12 days of fighting. Egypt's chief of intelligence, Omar Suleiman, is expected to serve as a go-between for Israel and Hamas. Two Israeli officials — a senior aide to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Shalom Turgeman, and a senior military official, Amos Gilad — are expected to go to Egypt on Thursday to begin discussions, Israeli officials said.

The United States has been involved in the negotiations behind the scenes, senior Israeli and French officials said, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice "constantly on the phone" with Olmert, according to one Israeli official.

In Washington, the White House spokeswoman, Dana Perino, said of talks about a cease-fire: "As I understand, the Israelis are open to the concept but they want to learn more about the details; so do we."

At the United Nations, several Arab states pressed for a binding Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire. But the United States and other Western powers called for a nonbinding resolution on halting the violence.

A senior French official in Paris said that Sarkozy's earlier comment about an agreement on a cease-fire was misunderstood, saying: "The plan is not a cease-fire, the plan is a roadmap toward a cease-fire." One crucial aspect of any agreement is how to prevent new smuggling tunnels from being built under Egypt's border with Gaza.

The senior Israeli official raised the possibility of reaching "tacit agreements" with Hamas to end rocket fire, while also persuading Egypt to allow American and perhaps European army engineers to help seal its border with Gaza above and below ground.

Hamas is insisting that any new arrangement include the reopening of the border crossings for fuel and goods with Israel and the reopening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt for people. President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt has said that a 2005 agreement on the Rafah crossing, reached with Israel and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah, must be respected. That agreement called for a Palestinian Authority presence at the crossing, supervision by European Union monitors and Israeli video surveillance of who enters and leaves.

Hamas wants to control the crossing itself and is not eager to cooperate with Fatah, its arch-rival.

In Washington, President-elect Barack Obama, said Wednesday that he would "engage immediately" in the Middle East crisis and that he was "deeply concerned" about the loss of life on both sides.

"I am doing everything that we have to do to make sure that the day I take office we are prepared to engage immediately in trying to deal with the situation there," he said at a press conference. "Not only the short-term situation but building a process whereby we can achieve a more lasting peace in the region."

Source: International Herald Tribune